Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Nuclear Deal Continued------------


UNCLEAR ARGUMENTS
The proposed Indo-US Agreement on nuclear cooperation has a long history behind it. For the past
three to four decades the imperialist club, headed by USA, has been pressurizing rest of the world, including
the socialist countries, to embrace neoliberal capitalism and become subservient to them. Towards the end of
eighties they succeeded in breaking up the socialist camp and halting the experiments to build socialism. The
attempt to force the third world countries to accept the policy of LPG (Liberalization-Privatization and
Globalization) was resisted, in the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations for some time with India at it’s
leadership. In 1990 India succumbed or rather was betrayed. The leading role in the sell-out was played by
no other a person than Shri. Montek Singh Ahluwadia, the present Vice Chairman of Planning Commission.
The big bourgoisie in India felt that they have much to gain if India became part of an open global economy.
Since then the forces for globalization and against globalization have been engaged in a tug-of-war. The
globalization forces have been gaining ground inch by inch. The policy of non alignment ceased to have the
original relevance because there is no more any socialist camp. However it has acquired a new meaning: a
camp of imperialist nations (the G-7 countries) with USA at its head and a camp of third world countries
under neocolonial regimes. India actually belongs to the second camp, but the government had decided to
join the camp of the imperialists, by becoming a subordinate ally to the USA. For the past decade and half
India was being pushed step by step towards the US camp. Initially it was on the economic front. But our
stance towards the invasion of Iraq by the US and the part we played in it have been several steps, at one
stroke, towards the American Camp. The present leadership of the congress has no qualms about it. They
believe, perhaps honestly, tha it is good for India - or at least good for the big capital in India. The question
whether US is a peace loving, democratic nation is answered verbally in strong affirmative terms and in action
through equally strong denial. The entire history of US, right from its birth as a colony, till date is one of high
handedness. The genes of its civilization originate from the annihilation of millions and millions of local ‘Indians’,
enslavement of millions and millions of black Africans, and are carried across past centuries through
criminal invasions and machiavelliam machinizations, through Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Afganistan, Iraq.... The
legacy of American Civilization is one of violence. USA is the only country in history which used atomic bombs
to kill civilians, in spite of the fact that it was not necessary to win the war and against the advices of many.
And, then, it dosen’t want other nations to acquire the capacity to build nuclear weapons. Dr. P.K. Iyengar
former Director of BARC and Chairman of AEC and one of the chief architects of the first Pokhran experiment
writes in an article “The Indo-US Nuclear Deal”:
10
The history of attempts to restrain new nations from acquirring the capability to produce
nuclear weapons goes back to late 1940’s and early 1950’s, after the use of nuclear weapons on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The Americans felt that the science and technology were so
complicated that other nations would not be able to achieve a break through. However the Soviet
Union, UK, France and China successively detonated nuclear devices. This frightened the Americans.”
In fact they became panicky.They executed two scientists, the Rosenburgs, on the charge that they
leaked nuclear information to the soviets. The US became a nation possessed by paranoia. The irony is that
even before the dropping of atomic bombs in Nagasaki andHiroshima, scientists had warned, in what became
famous as Frank Report (Appendix-II), against use of nuclear weapons. They had warned that nuclear science
is not a secret one, that the basic principles of making bombs are known to a large number of physicists
in various nations and that they will be forced to make their own nuclear weapons, which many of them can
make, and soon an ‘arms race’ will be set in motion from which there will be no turning back. And that was
exactely what happened. The American politicians in their arrogance and foolishness thought that they can
prevent other nations from acquiring the technology of nuclear explosives. They propounded the Atoms for
Peace plan in mid ‘50s and took initiative to form the IAEA in 1958. Ostensively a program for cooperation
on peaceful uses, it was a ruse to control the spread of nuclear weapon technology. They came out with the
proposal to ban atmospheric nuclear explosions. India willingly joined then. But soon China exploded its
first nuclear bomb. China joined the nuclear club. There were five of them now: USA, UK, France, USSR
and China. Together they termed themselves as Nuclear Weapon States and all other countries as Non
Weapon States and came forward with the idea of NPT. Obviously, other states would not take it willingly.
By 1965 India had mastered the technology for spent fuel processing and extracting plutonium, but did
not go for nuclear weapons because of a number of reasons. Its attempts to obtain umbrella protection from
advanced countries, however, failed. In the mean time the NPT was formulated, in 1968. It was blatantly
discriminatory. It required non weapon states to abstain from attempting to make nuclear weapons. In return
they were promised help in nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The nuclear weapon states will, however,
retain their arsenal which went on multiplying due to cold war. India decided not to sign this discriminatory
NPT and upheld it’s sovereign right to acquire nuclear weapons when need arose. And soon the ‘need’
arose. It saw in Pakistan and China two permanent enemies. The political and defense experts saw in nuclear
weapons a strong deterrent. This led to the first Pokhran test of 1974. This gave another shock to the
Americans. Already their policy of ‘containment’ against China had met with failure. In Vietnam they were
on the verge of defeat. Now, India too has exploded its bomb that too without their CIA getting any inkling of
it. Even though they new that India will never be a military threat to them, India’s success in detonating the
nuclear device, which was still not a deliverable weapon, unsettled them. It was like a black man intruding into an exclusive white club. They decided to ‘punish’ India and ordered ‘sanctions’ against it. The Indian government,
the scientists and the engineers accepted the challenge and struggled on to complete and push forward the programmes that had been started with foreign collaboration - from the initial Heavy Water Reactor in Rajasthan, to the totally Indian 540 MW advanced reactors in Tharapur and to the 500 MW Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor in Kalpakkam. In the meantime countries like South Africa, Brazil and Argentina developed their own cpabilities for nuclear explosives. It became clear to America that no nation could be stopped from pursuing research and development and innovate technology for becoming a nuclear power. They started the
game of reward and punizhment. A caucus called Nuclear Supply Group - a united front of imperialist interests
- came into existence to black mail those nations which did not sign NPT by denying supply of equipment and
materials for development of nuclear power reactors and even in other areas.
India resisted all threats and inducements and held its position to keep its sovereign rights and went on
to further successful test explosions in 1998 and declared itself as a nuclear weapon country. Whether this was
a politically correct thing to do is a different question. Possession of nuclear arsenals by India, Pakistan and
China would in no way ease tensions existing between them. The ‘cold and hot war’ with Pakistan continues.
India has to go on increasing the defence budget every year, starving resources for development and social
security. There is no military solution to India’s long standing disputes with either Pakistan or China. But, this
has nothing to do with the stance of America or NSG. They were trying to behave as ‘over lords’. India raised
the issue of total disarmament and of a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty -CTBT. Majority of the nations who
were party to NPT accepted and ratified CTBT. But the US Congress refused to ratify it. America never
accept what others say; others have to obey what America orders. That is how they feel. America declared
itself to be the ‘World Police Man’.
Thus it went on. India went on developing not only its weapon capacity but also its delivery capacity
through a series of missiles testing. Indian scientists and engineers proved their mettle. US gradually began to
recognise the strategic importance of India and that the harder it hits India, the stronger the latter will become
both in science and technology and the slower will be the rate at which Indian markets will be opened up for
American goods. They began to hide the stick by making it look like large carrots and initiated a process for
establishing ‘strategic partnership’ including cooperation on civil nuclear power. On the Indian side, the
political leaders, the bureaucrats and the business community were all gradually recognizing the rich dividends
they can obtain by becoming a ‘Friend of America’ albeit a subordinate one. So, as the old sanskrit saying
goes: “What the patient desired, the physician prescribed.” A sugar coated agreement was signed on 18th
July 2005. The main points with respect to the nuclear policy were the following:
(i) The US will, for the present, recognize that India is a de-facto nuclear weapon country. But it will
not be ready to admit India into the exclusive nuclear club formally. It will not immediately object India’s right
for developing nuclear weapons.

(ii) The US and it’s allies in the NSG will cooperate with India in the area of civil nuclear energy
through commercial channels and participation in international efforts.
(iii) India will accept the discriminatory NPT, accept the Club of Five as superior nations and their right
to impose conditions and police activities, it will put its civil nuclear programme under IAEA safe
guards.
Matters moved very quickly, especially during and after the visit of President Bush to India. This has
resulted in the following understanding:
(i) India will separate its civil and military programmes and put the civil programmes under IAEA
safeguards
(2) Which all facilities are to be placed under civilian category and which under military category can be
decided by India.
(3) Indian government will be free to augment its military part.
(4) America will persuade NSG to exempt India from the restrictions presently placed on it.
(5) US will, also, persuade IAEA for an India - specific safeguard agreement.
On the face of it US appeared to be sincere. However it was a very complex situation, negotiating
simultaneously with US, NSG and IAEA. The separation of civilian and military establishments proved to be
tough. The Indian nuclear programme was built with emphasis on nuclear power generation. The bomb plans
were added on to it. The first and second Pokhran tests were carried out almost entirely through civilian
establishments. It was almost impossible to separate civilian and military laboratories, scientists, equipments
etc. Further, the US began to dictate as to what facilities must become civilian and therefore subject to IAEA
safeguards. Non-proliferation Ayatollahs in US were, in fact, deciding terms. Even our oldest reactors like
CIRUS as well as 65% of nuclear power stations in operation or under construction will have to be placed
under safeguards, whether there has been any contribution from abroad or not. What the NSG can demand
justly is that the materials and equipment they supply should not go into the making of nuclear weapons. But
they want all future power stations including fast breeder reactors producing power to be put under IAEA
inspection. After imposing such conditions, to say that ‘we are not questioning your rights to make bombs’ is
sheer mockery. Not even a gram of plutonium generated in our power stations can be diverted for weapons.
The author is not a protagonist of nuclear weapons, but do believe that neither USA or other NSG countries
have any right to interfere with the sovereignty of our country.
The nature of IAEA safeguards are both tight and loose at the same time - tight in binding us, loose in
interpretation by them. Even our R and D will be under the control and inspection of the IAEA. This will
infringe upon the sovereign right of the country to innovate technologies even in civilian power sector. Sub- stantial R and D is necessary to establish and consolidate new processes and improve efficiencies and this
cannot be done with the IAEA constantly looking over the shoulders of our scientists and engineers. For
example Brazil has developed a new and more efficient centrifuge process and is having trouble asserting its
intellectual property rights in the face of mandated IAEA inspections. It may be noted, once again, that the
author is not arguing for large scale development of nuclear power or for Intellectual Property Rights. IPR is
an ethically unacceptable concept. The humanity cannot survive this century without uninhibited sharing of
knowledge and caring for each other. The author is against the appropriation of all ‘Intellectual Properties’ by
the US and its allies.
India has also agreed to negotiate an additional protocol with the IAEA whose terms and conditions are
not defined. But one thing the citizens can be sure of: they will never know it in full and their voice will not be
heard. This additional protocol invented in mid nineties are based on the suspicion that certain states are
producting Weapons of Mass Destruction. USA and NSG countries have stocks of WMD which can
destroy the entire world several times. They are extraordinarily intolerant of the idea of progressive disarmament.
The new protocol is highly intrusive and infringes on the right of a nation to independently pursue R and
D not only in nuclear science and technology, but also in all areas of S and T. We have seen this in the case of
Iraq - the barbarian attitude of US and NSG countries. It is being repeated in Iran and North Korea. We have
also seen the attitude of our own government in this matter. Can and should India subject its scientists to
intrusive instructions by an outside body when vital interests are involved?
The benefits of Indo-US deal are trumpeted as a panacea for the expansion of nuclear power in our
energy sector, offering energy security for the future. This essentially means buying nuclear power stations
and virtually saying good-bye to our well established nuclear power programme based on the PHWR. There
is no economic analysis of imported nuclear power stations nor a comparison with other sources such as
coal, oil etc.
The testimonies before the US Congress, the additions to Bush proposal which have been recommended
by the Congressional Committees have all come as a shock to those who follow the intricacies of the
nuclear deal. It is so obvious that in spite of the exemptions to be approved by the Congress, the President of
the US will have to certify every year, in detail, that he is satisfied with the behaviour and programmes of India
in the nuclear field. He has to certify that no benefit is derived by the Indian strategic programme from the
external assistance derived through this deal. This is a very dangerous proposition, for in such a complicated
interaction it is very difficult to provide clear evidence required for such a certification. This will result in (a)
restrictions on our strategic programmes (b) free US access to all information created by our scientists and
technologists.
Arguing on the above indicated vein Dr. Iyengar concluded his paper thus:
“As a scientist I feel that the non-proliferation agenda of the US, trying to restrain acquisition
of even simple technologies, like that of enrichment, is bound to fail. If one looks at the growth of
electronics and the innovations that have been brought about by a deeper understanding of semiconductor
physics and innovations in making devices including computers, imaging devices etc. it is
clear that the sovereign right to be able to develop science and technology is important and necessary
for any country. Surrendering these basic rights is dangerous and will be doing injustice to the
future generation in India.”
This was in August 26, 2006 when the Prime Minister met with seven senior nuclear scientists for a
discussion on the Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation Deal. Dr. A. Gopalakrishnan a former Chairman of Atomic
Energy Regulatory Board too was there, besides two other former Chairmen of AEC, a former Director of
BARC, a former CMD of NPC and a former director of IGCAR.
A few months later, on 18th December 2006 the US amended its Atomic Energy Act 1956, and the
amendments were incorporated in the Henry S. Hyde - India Peaceful Nuclear Energy Act 2006 that has
become the law of the Land (US) on the same day. On this occasion Dr. P.K.Iyengar and Justice V.R.Krishna
Iyer wrote the following letter to all the Hon’ble Members of the Parliament.
“India is negotiating with the US a bilateral agreement for transfer of nuclear materials and technologies
from the US and other Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Countries, which was so far denied to India for more
than three decades following the Indian Peaceful Nuclear Experiment (PNE) at Pokran in 1974.
The lifting of the US sanctions against India and resumption of supply of nuclear materials and technology
to India is subject to India’s compliance with the provisions of the said Hyde Act 2006 in the bilateral
agreement. Any non-compliance (real or alleged) shall put back India where it is now.
The following are the implictions of the Hyde Act 2006 on India’s sovereignty and nuclear activities:
i The US assurance on supply of uranium fuel to India is deceptive and illusory; Section (102); Section
103 (a) (5) & (6);
ii The US certification of India’s nuclear activities is totally uncalled for; Section 104(g)(2); Section
(g) (2) (H);
iii India’s nuclear installations shall be perpetually under the US scanner; Section 104(d) (5) (B) (iii)
iv The US authorities shall be peeping on India’s all nuclear activities; Section 104(g)(1);
v The US intends to have right to discipline India; Section 104(g)(2)-D;
vi The US will scuttle India’s defence strategies; Section 106;
vii The US will be interfering with India’s overall nuclear policy; Section 103(b)(2);
viii India’s sovereignty will be compromised and foreign policy dictated by the US; Section 103(b)(4);Section 104(c)(2) (G); Section 104(g) (2) (E);
ix Extraneous issues not related to nuclear sciences are being forced upon India; Section 103(b) (3);
Section 104(g) (2) (K).
Question No.1: Before we accept such humiliating conditions, we must ask:
(a) Do we need the US support for our nuclear programme?
NO. Because
We have achieved enough success in spite of 33 years of world sanctions.We are a recognised
country in all branches of nuclear sciences and technology.
(b) Do we need uranium from the US?
NO. Because
(i) India is producing 3900 MWe today and has enough uranium for 10,000 MWe for next 50 years.
(ii) India is also developing fast-breeder technology and uranium-thorium-uranium reactor cycle and
has 50 years to perfect this technology.
QUESTION No.2: Is India keen to sign the Bilateral Agreement nonetheless?
YES. Because,
The Honourable Prime Minister of India has stated: “India follows a Parliamentary model, as specified
in our Constitution, wherein treaty making powers rest with the Executive.”
QUESTION No.3: Whether under our Constitution, Executive has unfettered powers to enter into
any treaty/bilateral/multilateral agreement with any other country or countries without taking into confidence
the Parliament inter alia the people of India? If not, what should be the course of action?
“NO” is the answer. Parliament must discuss the matter before the Agreement is signed.
This is the conclusion of the report dated 8th January 2001 submitted by the National Law Commission
set up to review the working of the Constitution with respect to Treaty Making Powers of the
Executive under the Constitution of India, as also the manner in which they shall be implemented. Hence
under our Constitution, the Treaty Makiing power is not vested in the Executive or President. It is squarely
placed within the domain of the Parliament. Theoretically speaking, Parliament can by making a law prohibit
the Executive to enter into a particular Treaty or a particular kind of Treaties; similarly it can also direct the
Executive to enter into a particular Treaty or may disapprove or reject a treaty signed and/or ratified by the
Executive. It is a different matter that Parliament has not chosen to make a law in that behalf....”
Several other scientists and public men began to come out with similar opinions. The left political
parties opposed the deal. The currently employed scientists of DAE, of course, have only two options - either
to support the deal or to resign. But that was not sufficient for the Prime Minister, who now considers this as a personal issue, an issue of pride, and perhaps, more. He recruited an army of ‘scientists’ to convince the
public that (a) there is an energy crisis, which is the reason for poverty in India, (b) this crisis can be resolved
only by nuclear energy (c) this requires immediate signing of the agreement with US and that (d) this will not,
in anyway, affect our sovereignty.
The arguments put forth by the government and its speakers to convince us that the agreement will in no
way affect our freedom are not the least convincing. The pronouncements of the spokes persons of US
government, besides Bush himself clearly declare: India should behave properly, that is the way we want, and
if not they would go back on the agreement. The proposition that Hyde Law is not applicabe to India is silly.
Of course it is a law of the US and is applicable to US government only. No country can, in principle, enact
laws which are applicable to other countries. But this law enjoins US government to act in a particular way
with regard to India: withdraw from the agreement if India does not ‘behave’ properly. If that does not affect
us, then why in the first place we sign such a degrading agreement? The situation is not different even when we
decide to withdraw from the agreement. It is always the leaf that gets pierced and not the thorn. The US
President and his spokes persons have made it clear, what they expect from India: to stand by the US in its
fight against terrorism, meaning thereby supporting its own terrorist- like activitities in Iran, N.Korea or
anywhere in the world; to support US in all its acts of self-aggrandisement, even at the expense of the poor
people of India. But why US is eager to have the 123 Agreement with India? India’s policy initiatives are
certainly a cause for concern for the US. An analysis-India’s Energy Security Challenge - by the Institute for
the Analysis of Global Security, Washington January 21, 2004 gives the US perspective.
• India - Pakistan - Iran gas pipeline (Iran has 27.5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves
making Iran the second major gas rich country and fourth major gas producer in the world)
• India is making investment in overseas oilfields, for example in Africa, especially in
Sudan, where India has invested $ 750 million in oil, and Nigeria, with which India reached a deal
last November enabling it to purchase about 44 million barrels of crude oil per year on a long term
basis. India recently finalized a contract in Syria for the exploration, development and production of
petroleum with a Syrian company. Sakhalin, in Russia, and Vietnam and Myanmar in Sourtheast
Asia - the investments are projected to reach $ 3 billion within a few years.
• To support energy security interests in Central Asia, India has already stationed troops
in Tajikistan, provided it with $ 40 million aid package and undertook to refurbish an air base near
the Tajik capital Dushanbe. India is also pursuing relations with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan.
• But the most attractive oil domain outside the Persian Gulf is the Caspian Basin where
India is trying to gain a foothold.
India’s policy of source diversification has problematic implications. First, many of the coun-tries with which India is dealing are known for severe violations of human rights, sponsorship of
terrorist activities, and general misuse of oil revenues. Further enrichment of oil suipplying countries
like Sudan, Syria and Iran is not in the interests of India, a country which itself is a prime target of
Islamist terrorism. Second, the exploration of overseas oilfields, especially in the area of the South
China sea, could bring India in direct competition with fellow Asian countries like China and Malaysia.
Most importantly, this policy contributes to accelerating global depletion of non-Middle East oil
reserves, and will lead India and the rest of the world to a point in which dependence on the region
woul be far stronger.”
This perception also could be the basis for the 123 Agreement and the Hyde Act. In a prepared text
presented to the House International Relations Committee, (April 5, 2006) taking testimonies on the India
specific Hyde Act, the US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice gave the following reasons for the Indo
US Nuclear deal:
First, the Initiative will deepen our strategic partnership.
Second, the Initiative will enhance energy security.
Third, the Initiative will benefit the environment.
Fourth, the Initiative will create opportunities for U.S. business.
Finally, the Initiative will enhance the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.
In a written statement she stated:
• Civil nuclear cooperation with India will help it meet its rising energy needs without
increasing its reliance on unstable foreign sources of oil and gas, such as nearby Iran.
• Diversifying India’s energy sector will help to alleviate the competition between
India, the United States, and other rapidly expanding economies for scarce carbon based
energy resources, thereby lessening pressure on global energy prices.
• To meet its mounting power demands, the Indian government plans to double its
capacity to produce electricity within the next eight years. With Congressional endorsement of the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, a large proportion of that growth would be in clean
nuclear technology.
• Currently, only two percent of India’s total power generation comes from nuclear
energy. Given the opportunity, India plans to invest quickly in additional civil nuclear reactors so that,
by 2020, its capacity to produce electricity from clean nuclear technology would reach 20,000
megawatts - a six-fold increase. Since the historic March 2 announcement, senior officials in India’s
atomic energy establishment have indicated their desire to exceed the 20,000 megawatts target through the accelerated import of high-unit capacity foreign reactors to further reduce their dependence
on dirty coal and fossil fuels.
• Under this plan and further long-term objectives, approximately 20 percent of India’s
total energy production would eventually be met by nuclear technology.
• In 2005, India’s net imports of oil totaled approximately 1.7 million barrels per day.
Even with conservative estimates, these imports are predicted to grow to 2 million barrels per day
within only the next four years. Much of that oil is imported from unstable sources. As part of the
newly launched, U.S.- India energy Dialogue, the United States has committed to help India secure
other stable sources of energy.
• Specifically, India has agreed to place all future civil reactors - both breeder and
thermal - under permanent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and to continue
its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing. India will also place a majority (14 out of 22) of its
existing and planned power reactors under safeguards by 2014. Under this initiative, 65 percent of
India’s thermal reactors will be brought under safeguards, a figure that the Indian government has
said could rise as high as 90 percent as India procures more civil reactors in the next 15 years.
During oral deposition Rice stated:
“The initiative will also create opportunities for American jobs, as many as 3,000-5,000 new direct jobs,
and about 10 to 15,000 indirect jobs as we engage in nuclear commerce with India. Nuclear cooperation will
provide a new market for American nuclear firms, as well as assist India’s economic development. By helping
India’s economy to grow, we would help our own.”:
The government has not, so far, succeeded in convincing anybody that the Indo-US deal is not onesided,
that it is not restrictive on India and that it makes India a ‘subordinate ally’. It is , therefore, trying to road-roller
the Indian mind by the propoganda that without nuclear energy India’s progress will come to a halt and that
the poor will remain poor and that for nuclear energy we have to sign this agreement. All these arguments are
absurd and wrong. Prakash Karat, Gen. Secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) says why the
Party opposes the deal in the following words.
“Without going into the complex and technical issues concerning civilian nuclear cooperation, it
is necessary to take a wider look at the implications of the agreement. Is this only a nuclear cooperation
deal or is it part of a wider agreement? If so, does it protect our capacity for an independent
foreign policy and how will it affect our sovereignty? One can legitimately question if India should
partner the United States in the global democracy enterprise. “Regime change” and implanting of
democracy have yielded horrific results in Iraq.
The nuclear cooperation deal is only one part of the wide ranging alliance that the UPA govern-ment has forged with the United States. This was spelt out by the Indian Prime Minister and the
American President in the joint statement in July 2005 in Washington. This agreement covers political,
economic, military and nuclear cooperation. This alliance entails not just nuclear cooperation
but talks of the two countries promoting global democracy, revamping the Indian economy to facilitate
large scale investment by the United States and a strategic military collaboration.”
After all, behind the apparent lack of coherency and clarity in the arguments of the Prime Minister and
his cohorts, there is a clear purpose: to tie India with theUS as a subordinate ally. The big bourgoise in India
expects to gain from this. The poor will suffer. The left cannot accept it. However, without support from the
masses, especially the middle class the left may not be able to stop this. The masses are confused. For taking
an informed stand they should know the historical development of nuclear power, its present status and future
perspectives.
Continued

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Nuclear Deal

1
DARK DAYS AHEAD
COMMON MAN’S GUIDE TO THE
INDO-AMERICAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT
M.P.Parameswaran
1. THE CONTEXT
This book is born out of a unique situation in the wake of a nationwide debate on the Indo-US 123
Agreement. The Agreement has been proposed at an initiative from the Prime Minister’s Office and not either
from the Energy Ministry or from the Department of Atomic Energy. The left parties, particularly the CPI(M),
which have been giving support to the minority congress government felt that this agreement is against the
interest of the country and its people. They took a firm stand on the issue and warned the Congress that they
will withdraw support to the government if it goes forward with the agreement. The government slowed down
a bit, but never back tracked. They consider it a ‘life and death’ issue. It does not seem to be a prestige issue
alone. There is something more than that. Anybody with a little of common sense can see that a few months or
even a year’s delay in such an agreement is not going to impact upon our nuclear programme. It becomes very
difficult to understand why the Prime Minister and the Congress get so much worked up on this issue. The
crucial issues that have been projected during the course of the debate are:
1 India is facing an energy crisis.
2 There is only one way to solve it: expand the ongoing nuclear energy programme
3 We require help from other nations, especially the USA, to obtain uranium, equipments and technology
for this expansion.
4 India has not signed the NPT, it has conducted nuclear weapon tests; USA had promulgated “sanc
tions” against providing a host of equipment and materials; the Nuclear Supply Group nations
follow these sanctions. Unless these sanctions are removed or losened India will not get nuclear fuel or
equipment from other countries.
5 If this is to happen we have to sign a special treaty with the USA, on terms dictated by them. USA
enters this treaty in accordance with section 123 of its Atomic Law and hence it is known as the
123 Agreement.
6 This 123 Agreement is related only to nuclear energy production, it won’t affect military activities;
India’s right to make or test nuclear weapons will remain. The Left need not have any anxiety towards
this.
7 There is, also, no room for the fear that this will impact on our foreign policy.
8 On the other hand this agreement will facilitate increased cooperation in non nuclear areas; it will at
tract increased Foreign Direct Investment, help accelerate economic growth and thus eradicate pov
erty.
If we don’t sign this agreement it will lead India to a severe economic crisis; unemployment and
poverty will increase.
10 The Hyde Act passed by the US Senate to enable it to sign such an agreement with India is not
applicable to India, but only to US. We need not be unduly worried about the provisions in that law.
Essentially these are the arguments that have been put forward by the Government and its spokesmen.
However many leading experts in nuclear energy disagreed on most of the arguments put forward by the
government. Government too had many ‘experts’ to argue its case. Of course they did not ‘argue’ but only
‘repeat’ the official line. The left parties, especially the CPI (M) and the CPI disagreed with the government.
They raised the following issues:
1 The very idea of such an agreement originated under questionable circumstances. Neither the Integrated
Energy Policy of the Planning Commission nor the two departments connected with energy
indicated the necessity of such an agreement. It came out from the PMO more like a political initiative
than as a techno-economical proposal.
2 The energy and power deficit in the short run of a few years can be better met with by other sources,
like coal, than by nuclear energy.
3 The Hyde Act may not impact upon the internal policies of our country. But it restricts directly the
actions of the US government and through that the very operation of the agreement.
4 The Hyde Act directs US Government to ensure that the internal and external policies of India do not
go against US interests. This has got very wide implications. It will make India a satellite nation, a
dependent nation.
5 India can refuse. US too is at liberty to go back on the agreement. But by then we would have had
already committed our energy programme to nuclear source. Stoppage of that source will put Indian
economy into doldrums. After having committed the country to nuclear energy, in future it will not be
able to afford to break the contract. It will be forced to dance to the tunes of US interests.
6 So, this is not an agreement on technology, neither one on economy. It is out and out a political
agreement.
This, in substance, is the crux of the opposition from the left. They also argued that nuclear energy is
costlier and that there are better options. Further, they suspected that the present interest in import of nuclear
power stations might be also, to help the big US Corporations like Westing House,General Electric, Bechtel
etc. All these are true. But there is more to it.
1 Is there a real energy crisis in the country now? Five to eight percent deficit is not a crisis, especially
when there is a possibility of reducing losses by more than 10 to12%.
6
2 How much energy we want in the coming decades? What for? What is our development perspective?
3 Is nuclear energy the best option? Technology wise? Costwise? Abundance? Are there not better
options?
4 What about problems of accidents and of nuclear waste disposal? Why USA stopped its nuclear
power programme in 1978 and never restarted it?
5 Do we want to stock pile nuclear weapons? Is the nuclear deterrent theory valid? What about terror
ism - both individual and state? How long we can turn our face from political solutions to the problems
we have with our neighbouring nations?
It may be possible to allay the fears of left parties with some changes in the clauses of the agreement.
The Government, apparently, is not ready even for this. However there is much more to this. The government
may sign even a worse agreement with anybody, with impunity. We often take pride in being the largest
(greatest?) democracy in the world. But if democracy is a government By the people, our’s is scarcely one.
It is a government by the bureaucrats and the cabinet. People don’t have any right other than to cast their
votes. There is not, even, any provision for recall of elected representatives. But rights are not enough. People
should have the ability to govern themselves. Knowledge is an essential element in this ability, as much as the
will to learn and to act. India has a sizeabale educated middle class, nearly a couple of hundred million
people. To take an informed and well considered stand in any issue they should have sufficiently deep knowledge
on the issues that are being debated. Nuclear energy is not a well understood subject. The ‘experts’
speak in several languages. The ‘educated’ are not knowledgeable enough to make sense out of mutually
contradictory statements coming out of experts. This book is an attempt to put the various issues connected
with nuclear energy in ‘non’-experts’ language so that they could be understood by any educated person -
whether in science or in humanities.
The present government is bent upon importing nuclear power stations, departing from the policy of self
reliance followed for the past fifty years. Two reactors of 1000 MW each imported from Russia are being
erected at Koodamkulam, Tamil Nadu. Two more such reactors will be imported. Further, they want to
import another 10,000 MW of Pressurized Water Reactors, from the USA. For all these reactors we have to
import enriched uranium from USA which has a large stock of fuel to be sold off for the coming 40 years.
This dependency will force us to collaborate with USA in all its acts of terrorism (imperialistic invasions) as it
did in Afghanistan and Iraq recently, in Korea, Vietnam and scores of other countries in earlier times.
If we are to go on our own in the nuclear field the maximum we can achieve by 2015 is only 10,000
MW. We don’t have enough uranium for more. We can purchase any quantity we want, provided we have
resources to buy and they are willing to sell. But are we paying a fair price or too bloated a price, apart from
the political price? Import of 10,000 MW of nuclear power stations will cost anywhere between Rs.90,000-1,20,000 crores. With the same amount we can import 20,000-30,000 MW of wind power, we can import
an equal capacity of solar stations or we can build 30,000 MW of our own coal based thermal stations.
BHEL and NTPC are capable of executing such a task.
It is strange to see that the nuclear proponents are raising the bogy of global warming against coal based
thermal stations. An additional 10,000 MW of coal stations in lieu of import of 10,000 MW of Nuclear
Power Station will add to the atmosphere only 88 M Te of carbon dioxide per year as against the current rate
of 35,000 MTe of carbon dioxide per year.
The nuclear prospects globally for the coming three decades show that the share of nuclear energy in the
total will not increase, but only decrease. It has source limitation, as against the common belief of unlimited
availability. Currently world over the installed nuclear capacity is about 370,000 MW, of which 99,000 is in
USA. This comes to about 9-10% of the total installed capacity. The energy production comes to about 15-
16%. Japan and a few European nations like France, Belgium, Germany etc, however continue to build
nuclear stations. This is, in spite of the fact that the issue of final disposal of high activity nuclear wastes remains
unsolved for the past 50 years, in spite of the fact that nuclear costs are considerably higher, in spite of the
fact that the final decommissioning of a nuclear power station is as or even more costly than the initial construction
cost. Why did they decide on the nuclear option? Why did projects like Plowshare aimed at
peaceful uses of nuclear explosion were shelved? Why the nuclear club nations, particularly US, is keen on
continuing nuclear tests and building more nuclear weapons when there is already a stockpile enough to
destroy the entire planet several times over? Will the people of the world would become more safe with more
nuclear bombs? Will bomb bring in peace? Further, are there not cleaner, cheaper, more abundant and renewable
sources for energy like wind, solar radiation etc? Why governments spend very little on research and
development in these fields? Why government of India doggedly refuse to spend on solar research?
There are many more questions. What are the major and minor nuclear accidents that have taken place
so far? How serious they were? What is the probability of Chernobyl type accidents happening again? What
precautions are to be taken? What are the considerations for siting nuclear power stations? What safety and
evacuation provisions are to be made?
These are all somewhat technical questions, but not beyond the capacity of ordinary people to understand.
They are to be told in a simple language and honestly and, of course, they have to put in effort to learn.
As mentioned, the objective of this book is to help ordinary citizens understand the basic elements of nuclear
power so that they can make informed decisions.
Besides techno economic issues there are social and philosophical issues too, as mentioned earlier.
How much energy we require and what for? What is the relationship between energy consumption and
quality of life? Which are the elements in the quality of life which depend on energy consumption and which don’t . Will all goods and services produced with the expenditure of energy- such goods like weapons of
mass destruction, narcotics, biological weapons - enhance quality of life? Are not the resources on this earth
limited? Can we use limited resources at an exponentially increasing rate? Are growth and development
synonyms? Can capitalism conceive development without growth? We will address some of these questions
in due course.
CONTINUED---

Monday, June 30, 2008

Nuclear Deal --- How to understand?

DARK DAYS ARE AHEAD
Dark days are ahead for democracy in India. The Prime Minister is ranting like a possessed person:
“we will sign this agreement at any cost.” The cost is not merely the Ministry. That is a cost to the Congress
Party only. It is, in reality, a cost to the People of India. Being tied to the US is the last thing that a sensible
people can wish for. Born in sin, brought up in sin, living in sin, the ruling American politics is one of the
violence and terrorism. The Indo US 123 Agreement is symbolic of the acceptance of the status of a subordinate
ally, so that a few more Indians can become billionaires.
The argument that India is facing an energy crisis which cannot be solved without Nuclear Energy and if
not solved it will decelerate economic growth and defeat our efforts to eradicate poverty and hunger is
totally wrong.
First: Economic growth alone will not eradicate poverty. We had 8-9% economic growth for the past
one decade. It has not reduced the poverty in Bihar or Orissa, in Jharkhand or Chattisgarh, in UP or MP.
Second: Economic growth and energy are not directly co relatable Economic growth without increase in
gross national welfare and per capita, electrical energy consumption of the richer half are almost linearly
connected. We want economic growth with justice and equity.
Third: there is no energy crisis in India. There is only an energy shortage, about 8-10%.
Fourth: this shortage can be overcome in the short run, - five to ten years - through conservation and
management. In the meanwhile more coal burning thermal stations, which are totally indigenous, can be built.
In the long and very long run we have to take resource to wind and solar energy, both of which have almost
become commercially competitive.
Fifth: Nuclear energy cannot ease the shortage neither in the short run nor in the long run. World over
its share is expected to come down and not to go up. The maximum that India can hope for by 2030 is only
8% nuclear share.
Sixth: Even the hope for 48,000 MW by 2030 is virtually unrealizable. About 30,000 MW are to come
from Fast Breeder Reactors whose technology is yet to mature and unlikely to do so in the near future.
Seventh: These are elemental facts which can be understood by Dr. Manmohan Singh and his colleagues.
Even the pronuclear scientists lobby will not controvert this. So, it has to be suspected that the frenzy for
signing the 123 Agreement has even more sinister motives behind it.
The pity is the fact that the Indian middle class is viewing the tussle between the Left and the Congress
as if they are viewing the Euro football tournament without getting involved in it. They have remained as
spectators for too long. They have to enter the field and start playing. That is the meaning of democracy, a
government BY the people.
Their hesitance to get involved in the play is ominous for democracy in India. It will allow the Executive,
the bureaucracy, to over ride the Parliament, the People and their elected bodies. If the government signs this
treaty without the informed consent of the Parliament, then Indian democracy is dead, the greatest democracy
in the world is dead. This we shall not be allowed to happen.